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IMF THREATENS to withdraw ECF support IMMEDIATELY if Government does not agree to an extension. #CITICBS
Options are for the self-sustained but not for the needy. Markets trust for the IMF cannot be substituted for the of the Ghanaian Government that has over time peddled false and inaccurate figures and information. But, an IMF that reviewed and accepted the previous government's reviews, should bow their heads in shame at this time, making claims of the Ghanaian Government not achieving its program.
The Ghanaian Economy's Half Year Review
The pickup in the global economy has seen some progress in the half year compared to the general performance in the previous half year of 2016. After a credit crisis in 2008, followed by a slump in commodity prices, the global economy has come a long way to post some impressive performance than anticipated. A major global upset was the risk posed by the exit of the British from the European Union, which brought uncertainty to the stability of the world economy. With prudent monetary policy mechanisms and a stronger than anticipated consumer demand from the British economy, the Bank of England (BoE) has been able to gradually mitigate the anticipated risk that the British economy and the world as a whole faced from the unprecedented referendum.
On the domestic front, the economy has posted some impressive macro economic result during the period under review. While risks in the economy appear broadly balanced in the near term, they remain skewed to the downside over shortfall in Government revenue inflows which is expected to fall short from estimates, but yet below previous year’s figure of a deficit of 10.3 on commitment basis or 9.6 on cash basis. The deflationary downtrend, which started in the last quarter of previous year, has been largely supported in the first half of the year. Inflation saw a swift drift from previous year figure of 15.4% to 13.3% in January. The downtrend continued on a marginal pace until April 2017, where adjustment in petroleum and transport prices pushed inflation to flirt with a new third year high of 13%. Inflation for the first half of the year averaged 12.8% and ended the half year at 12.1% as inflationary pressure had been gradually reduced by steady petroleum prices in the second pricing window, a more subdued depreciation of the currency, and rather dovish stances by the Monetary Policy Committee to reduce the MPC rate.
The Monetary Policy Committee after taking a more harder position on the MPC rate to arrest and mitigate downside risk, have in the period under review toned down their position on tightening the MPC rate. The MPC has constantly reduced the policy rate for this year from a high of 25.50% at the end of its last policy meeting in November to a current rate of 21%, depicting a cumulative reduction of 450bps during the period under review.
On the equity front, the market has seen some upbeat in its performance after it experienced a rather abysmal growth in the previous year. With robust economic growth, downtrend inflation, and a resilient currency, the exchange has been gaining traction in the investor community and have reported a solid composite index return of 16.31% and the financial stocks index posting a return of 18.08% at the end of the first half of the year. The market is expected to continue its gradual solid rise in light of strong and resilient macroeconomic variables.
The Ghanaian Cedi has been relatively stable against its major trading partners, the US Dollar, the British Pound Sterling and the Euro, during the period under review. The local currency, however, had a rough ride between the period of February to March recording a year-to-date of depreciation of 9.62% and 11.51% against the US Dollar on the 8th of March on the Bank of Ghana (BoG) inter-bank trading platform and the Open Forex Market on 3rd March respectively. The central bank, however, rescued the abysmal performance of the Cedi by auctioning $120 million Dollars out of the $1.8 Billion cocoa syndicated loans. The government’s 2.25 billion Dollar sovereign bond which was raised in the latter part of March and was largely subscribed by offshore buyers came in handy to boost the country’s international reserve. The bond which was rated the largest single-day sovereign transaction in the entire Sub Saharan region boosted the country’s central bank reserves by a third and improved the country’s reserve by the volume of the subscription thereby strengthening the Cedi’s performance against its major trading currencies. These moves strengthened the Cedi’s hand against its major trading partners reversing the fall to record a year-to-date appreciation of 0.89% against the Dollar on the BoG inter-bank and 2.50 against the Dollar on the open forex market. The local currency ended the first half of the year with a depreciation of 3.88% and 3.87% against the Dollar on the BoG interbank and open forex market respectively.
Investors look to the second half with great expectations as inflation continues its downtrend to converge at the Bank of Ghana’s medium term figure of (+-) 8% and the policy rate is also expected to move further downwards to compliment the ease in inflation. With the current move in the policy rate, the subdued depreciation of the currency and the direction of Government Treasury rates, we expect lending rate to converge downwards, which would directly boost the demand for short to medium term lending facilities from the various Banks. As the Government looks ahead to float a 15-year energy sector bond which is expected readdress the high NPL’s of the Banks, a more glaring systemic risk that was posed by the Banks in the previous year is expected to be mitigated going forward. On the issue of Government, inflow versus its expenditure, we expect Government’s inflow to fall short of estimates, but with a controlled expenditure to achieve its fiscal consolidation program.
[06/08/17] Have you ever wondered how the rich got their wealth and kept it growing? Do you want to invest, but don't know where to start? This is the opportunity for you. Phamily Consult is offering free seminars for churches, associations, clubs and other groups for the next half of the year. Kindly inbox or call to book a date.
[06/08/17] Money available at the present time is worth more than the same amount in the future due to its potential earning capacity. This core principle of finance holds that, provided money can earn interest, any amount of money is worth more the sooner it is invested.
[06/08/17] Income plays an important role in society and creating wealth for your future. Therefore, making smart investment decisions early in life can really pay off. Regardless of your current age, it is never too late to begin investing money to be able to fund your lifestyle and plan to ensure stability in your finances. There is no way to determine today what will happen tomorrow. Planning smooths out the bumps that may occur.
Let's re-look at GDP as a measure of growth.
If we want an economy of the 1%, then GDP is very useful. It tells us all we need to know. But if we want an economy that works for us all, we have to pay attention to what it is not telling us.
In the face of a growing inequality crisis, GDP tells us nothing about the distribution of growth. When just 62 people have the same wealth as half the world’s population, where a country like Ghana can grow rapidly in GDP terms and yet can see increased levels of poverty, and where the 1% own more than everyone else combined, growing GDP simply hides the poverty within.
GDP tells us nothing about the real price we are paying for such growth. Cutting down a forest for timber adds to GDP, but what we don’t record is the loss of wealth in terms of natural resources. We treat a planet at crisis point as an externality that can be shunted into a future generation. We continue to act as if we had the natural resources of several planets, not one.
It's totally regrettable that we have agreed to put less emphasis on the quality of life. We have to quantify the loss that occurs when achieving the said GDP measure and less it to have a better picture going forward. Without this measure, we are just postponing eminent disaster for future generations.
[02/26/17] The principle of investment is not the one off return your achieve, but the consistency to which such returns can be delivered. Always try to seek some level of growth slightly above inflation if you are risk averse (if you don't like risk) and don't forget the old saying - the higher the expected return you seek, the higher risk you would be expected to accommodate.
linkedin.com There was an ease in the year-on-year inflation rate as released by the Ghana Statistical Service in the first month of 2017. This is the lowest rate
Investment and the irony of return.
Most people approach investment firstly with the motive of making a reasonable return for their pockets. Am certainly not against that idea, obviously that is how a rational being should approach any investment. But I seem to establish the fact of Investment jurisdiction.
An individual investing in an advanced state like Europe and US would be more concerned about return than the going concern or safety of their funds or Capital. We in the less developed financial state or jurisdictions should rather look at going concern, sustainability of the entity and the team running the business before we even consider the return over time.
These aforementioned factors should seek to drive any rational being to consider their options in investment first, before they look at getting some return above inflation.
[01/19/17] What is your short to long term financial goal? If beginning an investment program has not been on your radar, you should be more concerned with your future. However, if you can scrape together a small amount of money for investment purposes, you'll be on your way to creating a much rosier financial picture in the years to come. A solid future is built on a sound financial plan.
Phamily Consult's cover photo
Phamily Consult's cover photo
Government has raised a total of 96.4 million dollars in its first local dollar denominated bond at a rate of 6.0 percent.
Total bids were 99.6 million dollars but government accepted 96.4 million dollars, above its original target of 50 million dollars.
Inflation- September 2016
Inflation rate for the month of September 2016 recorded a marginal increase as released by the Ghana Statistical Service. This is the highest rate recorded in the third quarter of the year. The inflation rate stood at 17.2 percent, up by 0.3 percentage point from 16.9 percent recorded in July 2016. The monthly change rate for September 2016 is 0.2 percent compared to the -0.6 percent recorded for August 2016.
The increase in inflation rate can be attributed to the increase in both food and non-food inflation rate in the month under review. The food and beverage group recorded a year on year inflation rate of 9.0 percent in September 2016 up by 0.5 percentage point from 8.5 percent recorded in August 2016. The non-food group recorded a year on year inflation rate of 21.6 percent in September 2016 up by 0.1 percentage point from 21.5 percent recorded in August 2016.
Even though the Cedi has also maintained some stability at current levels against its major trading partners, which could impact positively on the inflationary rate, the current level of inflation remains far above the Bank of Ghana’s medium term target band of 8±2 percent as well as the government’s inflation target of 10.1 percent at the end of 2016.
[10/05/16] Making money is one thing; saving it and making it grow is another. Financial management and investing are lifelong endeavors. Making sound financial and investment decisions is important for achieving your financial goals. The more knowledgeable and experienced you are in financial matters, the fewer mistakes you will make.
[08/07/16] Phamily circle has introduced phamily photos in an attempt to provide more family packages at your comfort at economical prices.... #kuukuphotography & #Gillbonneyphotography
[07/07/16] Our country is not progressing and one of the main reasons is because we are over reliant on imports of products which can easily be gotten from here. Why is the government not building capacity? Why should we import food when we have fertile lands? Lots of questions to be asked about the country's investments, growth, capacity building, trade and economic decisions
[06/13/16] Master your personal finance invest in your future. You should not be broke because you spent all your money.... be broke because you increased your savings and investment
[03/30/16] The best time to plant an oak tree was 20years ago. The next best time is now. Warren buffet. Invest n plan ur finances now for ur future
[03/30/16] As a result of currency depreciation, inflation and opportunity costs, the act of “not investing” is already a risk to your capital. Not giving yourself the opportunity to grow your wealth is almost certainly as risky as being in the market, and is more risky over longer time horizons.
[03/08/16] Put your savings aside before you spend don't spend and save what is left because no matter how much you earn your expenditure can always match your income
[03/04/16] Liking this page is your first step towards wealth creation. Congratulations
[03/04/16] The page seeks to offer advice to the general public on how to manage finances and invest irrespective of how little you earn. Feel free to post your questions
[03/04/16] We will be having healthy discussion on decisions of government and other institutions and its relative impact on and in the economy. lets have this discussion with an objective eye as possible.
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