Caspia

Head of CASPIA Center Orkhan Yolchuyev Holds Meeting with Mathias Corvinus Collegium in Budapest

Head of the CASPIA Center Orkhan Yolchuyev held a meeting with representatives of Mathias Corvinus Collegium in Budapest. During the meeting, the parties discussed prospects for future cooperation, joint research initiatives, and potential collaborative projects.
Orkhan Yolchuyev presented the activities of the CASPIA Center, highlighting the center’s key research projects and the work carried out within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).
Representatives of Mathias Corvinus Collegium also introduced the institution’s activities, noting that MCC is an educational institution and research center dedicated to the flourishing of the Hungarian nation and the development of talented young Hungarians across the Carpathian Basin.
At the conclusion of the meeting, the parties agreed on further cooperation and the implementation of joint initiatives.

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Director of CASPIA Center Visits Energy Research Center under Hungary’s Ministry of Energy

Director of the CASPIA Center, Orkhan Yolchuyev, visited the Energy Research Center under the Ministry of Energy of Hungary. During the visit, he was provided with detailed information about the center’s activities, as well as an overview of Hungary’s energy policy.

The parties discussed prospects for cooperation and agreed on further collaboration, including the implementation of joint projects.

CASPIA Signs Memorandum of Understanding with Frontier Files

The Caspia Analytical Center has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Frontier Files, establishing a general framework for cooperation between the two organizations. The agreement reflects a shared interest in advancing research and dialogue on key geopolitical and security issues across the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia.

The MoU outlines priority areas of cooperation, including the geopolitics of the aforementioned regions, terrorism and counter-terrorism dynamics, as well as collective security challenges and frameworks—particularly those involving Turkey, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan.

Within this framework, both parties expressed their readiness to explore a range of collaborative activities. These include joint research projects and publications, particularly those incorporating case studies from Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey, as well as broader regional analyses. Additional areas of cooperation include the exchange of non-confidential research data and academic materials, organization of joint seminars, workshops, and conferences, peer review of research outputs, and the potential secondment of researchers and experts.

The partnership is expected to enhance analytical capacity, strengthen cross-regional academic linkages, and contribute to more informed policy-oriented research on security and geopolitical developments.

Director of CASPIA Center Delivers Lecture at the Institute of International Relations under Hungary’s MFA

Director of the CASPIA Center, Orkhan Yolchuyev, held a meeting in Budapest, where he delivered a lecture at the Institute of International Relations under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary. In his remarks, he provided an in-depth overview of the current situation in the South Caucasus, with a particular focus on the peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, highlighting the Washington agreements.

He also spoke about the geopolitical transformation of the region and the growing role of the South Caucasus as a trans-logistical hub connecting Europe and Asia. Special attention was given to the priorities of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy, as well as regional initiatives in the field of cooperation and sustainable development.

The meeting and seminar were held in an interactive discussion format, generating strong interest and active engagement from the audience.

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CASPIA Signs Memorandum of Cooperation with Kenzhegali Sagadiev University of International Business

The CASPIA Analytical Center has signed a Memorandum of Cooperation with the Kenzhegali Sagadiev University of International Business (Kazakhstan), marking an important step toward strengthening academic and analytical collaboration between the two institutions. The agreement establishes a framework for joint research initiatives, knowledge exchange, and cooperation in the fields of political and economic analysis.

Under the memorandum, the parties expressed their commitment to developing collaborative analytical projects, conducting joint research, and fostering continuous dialogue on key regional and global economic issues. Both sides emphasized the importance of maintaining regular interaction and expert-level discussions aimed at producing practical policy recommendations and enhancing mutual understanding.

The Kenzhegali Sagadiev University of International Business, founded in 1992, is recognized for its strong academic tradition and forward-looking approach to education. Its institutional vision is based on principles of student-centered learning, commitment to academic excellence, integrity and ethical conduct, innovation and adaptability, as well as a people-focused approach.

The partnership is expected to contribute to the development of high-quality analytical outputs, expand research capabilities, and strengthen academic ties between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

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CASPIA Expert: Pre-Election Dynamics in Armenia Intensify Amid Regional Pressures

Nargiz Mammadova, an expert at the CASPIA Analytical Center, appeared on CBC TV in the program, where she discussed key political developments in the region. The discussion focused on the domestic political situation in Armenia, the TRIPP route initiative, and the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

According to Mammadova, Armenia’s political landscape is becoming increasingly dynamic ahead of the upcoming elections. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is attempting to accelerate progress on several initiatives in order to demonstrate tangible results before the vote. In particular, he has been actively promoting the imminent launch of the TRIPP route, despite the fact that, in practical terms, the project remains unclear and lacks concrete implementation steps.

She noted that this approach is largely aimed at strengthening the government’s public image. “Pashinyan operates on the premise that any document signed—particularly those reached in Washington—must at least show signs of implementation,” she stated.

At the same time, Mammadova highlighted developments within the opposition, noting that several opposition groups may consolidate against the current government. This potential alignment, in turn, is contributing to an intensification of Pashinyan’s campaign efforts.

The expert also addressed relations between Russia and Armenia. In her view, Yerevan is unlikely to enter into direct confrontation with Moscow; however, indirect economic maneuvering remains possible.

“Business elites play a decisive role in bilateral relations. Russia can exert influence on Armenia precisely through these economic actors,” she emphasized.

Overall, Mammadova concluded that Armenia’s domestic political dynamics are deeply intertwined with external geopolitical factors, and the upcoming elections will unfold within a complex regional and international environment.

More details: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo6JMm17Xio&list=PLo-7yss6M6XMy5372jVyGgLz_f61f8jWC&index=8

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CBC TV Azerbaijan 91 likes, 21 comments. "В ближайшее время откроется Зангезурский коридор? В Армении заговорили о невозможности войны с РФ"

CASPIA Director: Internal Contradictions in Iran Raise Serious Questions About Its Future and Stability

Orkhan Yolchuyev, Director of the CASPIA Analytical Center, appeared on ARB TV to comment on the latest developments in the domestic and foreign policy of Iran and the situation around the Middle East.

According to him, the growing internal contradictions in Iran are no longer limited to reputational concerns but are increasingly raising fundamental questions about the country’s future. “These internal tensions are effectively pushing Iran into a systemic crisis,” he stated.

Yolchuyev emphasized that the situation in Iran is unfolding against the backdrop of broader instability in the global economy. In particular, he pointed to disruptions in key sectors such as oil and the chemical industry, noting that their consequences are likely to become even more visible in the near future.

He also highlighted what he described as a strategic objective of the United States—to deepen internal social divisions within Iran. “In many ways, Iran is already operating under conditions of blockade,” he noted, stressing the critical importance of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait remains a vital artery for Iran’s economy, with up to 90% of its oil exports passing through it. At the same time, Yolchuyev pointed out that a significant portion of Iran’s oil sector is closely linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which complicates its ability to operate freely under sanctions pressure.

The analyst further underlined the absence of a fully centralized decision-making system within Iran. According to him, competing political factions—including more radical elements—are shaping policy directions. “Many individuals within these structures have military backgrounds from the Iran–Iraq war, and for them, confrontation is a familiar framework,” he explained.

At the same time, Yolchuyev noted that there are ongoing attempts to reach certain understandings, including through platforms involving Pakistan, which could serve the interests of both the United States and more technocratic circles within Iran.

Despite what may appear as a short-term sense of strategic advantage in Tehran, Yolchuyev warned that any disruption or blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have severe consequences for Iran’s own economy.

“Iran is currently at a critical juncture where internal divisions, external pressure, and geo-economic risks intersect, creating a highly complex and unstable situation,” he concluded.

https://caspia-lab.az/article/caspia-director-internal-contradictions-in-iran-raise-serious-questions-about-its-future-and-stability-2874

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CASPIA has started a new project on TV1

CASPIA Analytical Center has launched a new project on TV1 channel. Starting from April 17, the center, in cooperation with Baku Eurasian University, initiated a series of programs where experts discuss pressing geopolitical issues and global crises.

The program is hosted by the Director of the Center, Orkhan Yolchuyev. The guest of the first episode was Mutallı Rahimov, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Regional Studies, Doctor of Philosophy, and Associate Professor at the Baku Eurasian University.

The first episode focused on the emerging global order in the context of the ongoing crisis in Iran. During the discussion, Orkhan Yolchuyev noted that developments in Iran also have indirect implications for the South Caucasus.

Opening the discussion, the host raised the question of whether the current geopolitical turbulence is shaping a new world order. In response, Mutallı Rahimov stated that the events surrounding Iran demonstrate a shift in the behavior of global actors, who are increasingly moving away from international law and acting based on their political and economic interests.

According to him, the confrontation between the United States and Iran has once again highlighted the declining effectiveness of international institutions. He pointed out that the UN Security Council has previously failed to ensure the implementation of several resolutions, reflecting a broader crisis in the global governance system.

Orkhan Yolchuyev added that the current crisis extends beyond Iran itself and involves a broader struggle over strategic straits, transport corridors, and control over them.

The discussion also addressed the fragility of a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran and the risks of further escalation. Commenting on this, Rahimov noted that ceasefires are typically achieved either when one side holds overwhelming military and political superiority or when both sides are ready to engage in negotiations. However, in his view, neither condition fully applies to the current situation.

He emphasized that the two-week ceasefire appears to be transitional, as neither side has achieved its strategic objectives. He also highlighted the role of China, which, through diplomatic efforts, contributed to facilitating the temporary ceasefire.

As Rahimov concluded, even if a conflict originates in one region, its geopolitical implications inevitably extend further, affecting broader areas including Asia and China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYacxap7MKw&t=820s

A Positive Step, But Not the End”: Director of CASPIA on Baku–Moscow Normalization

The normalization of relations between Baku and Moscow following the crisis surrounding the tragic incident involving an Azerbaijani airliner has become an important, though not final, step toward restoring mutual trust. This was stated by political analyst and head of the CASPIA Analytical Center, Orkhan Yolchuyev, in a comment to Minval Politika.

According to him, the very fact that the issue has been resolved can already be viewed as a positive signal. “The settlement of the matters related to the tragedy involving the Azerbaijani airliner is, of course, a positive development in bilateral relations,” he noted.

The expert emphasized that such steps are fully consistent with Baku’s broader foreign policy strategy, which prioritizes maintaining stable, constructive, and strong relations with neighboring countries. This, in turn, contributes to the formation of a sustainable ecosystem of regional cooperation in the South Caucasus.

He recalled that a similar approach had been applied even in relations with Armenia: “Even with a country that occupied our territories for nearly 30 years, it was Azerbaijan that initiated the peace process and proposed peace following its victory in Karabakh.”

Addressing the Russian vector, Yolchuyev underlined its particular importance. “Relations with Russia carry significant weight, especially given the deep human and economic ties. A considerable part of Russia’s southern regions is economically interconnected with Azerbaijan,” he stated.

In his view, the resolution of the crisis was not coincidental and coincided with important bilateral engagements. “The issue was settled on the eve of the intergovernmental commission meeting held in Zangilan, which also carries symbolic importance for the liberated territories,” he added.

The analyst suggested viewing Baku–Moscow relations through the lens of two parallel tracks. “There is an economic track and a political one. After the airliner tragedy, this distinction became particularly evident,” he explained.

He stressed the resilience of economic cooperation: “Despite the tensions, economic interaction did not stop for a single day. On the contrary, over the past two years, ties have only strengthened.”

To support this, he cited specific figures: “Trade turnover has reached record levels—approximately $4.9 billion. Russian investments in Azerbaijan exceed $10 billion, while Azerbaijani investments in Russia amount to over $1.2 billion.”

At the same time, he noted that political dialogue had slowed down, largely due to a wave of negative information noise.

Nevertheless, Yolchuyev emphasized that the outcome of the crisis demonstrated the ability of both sides to reach agreements. “As a result of the crisis, Azerbaijan’s demands were met—this includes compensation and acknowledgment of responsibility. Ultimately, Russia demonstrated political will and resolved the issue, although this could have been done more swiftly,” he said.

He also highlighted the diplomatic nature of the resolution: “Azerbaijan allowed Russia to save face. The issue was resolved in a pragmatic and diplomatic manner, rather than in the way it was portrayed in the information space.”

At the same time, he pointed out that economic interdependence remains a key factor. “Amid the restructuring of global logistics chains, it is critically important for Russia to maintain stable and predictable relations with Azerbaijan,” he noted.

Particular emphasis was placed on the transport dimension. “The North–South corridor, especially its western route through Azerbaijan, is a strategic artery linking northwestern Russia with Iranian ports and further with the markets of the Global South,” he explained.

According to the analyst, this route is nearly twice as short as the path through the Suez Canal and is already used for transporting tens of millions of tons of cargo. Azerbaijan remains a key link, as the most efficient segment passes through its territory due to its developed infrastructure and high transit capacity.

Yolchuyev also drew attention to the broader geo-economic picture. “The southern direction is becoming a priority for Russia—Iran, Pakistan, India, Southeast Asia, and even East Africa,” he stated.

In this context, Baku’s role continues to grow. “For connectivity with these regions, with which Russia continues to actively engage, Azerbaijan today is a key country,” he emphasized.

The expert also noted the importance of political leadership. “Personal contacts between the leaders played a crucial role. It was the political will at the highest level that allowed the process to reach a resolution,” he said.

In conclusion, Yolchuyev identified a key indicator of further de-escalation. In his view, the first signal will be a reduction in negative rhetoric within the Russian information space. “Over the past two years, the tone has been excessively harsh, and it needed to change.”

According to him, the future trajectory of relations will depend on whether the parties are able to translate the achieved agreements into sustainable political trust.

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