Commodity Weather Group, LLC

Commodity Weather Group, LLC

Commodity Weather Group, LLC

Commodity Weather Group, LLC (CWG) helps its clients manage and mitigate the weather’s important impacts on agricultural and energy commodities. With a combination of rapid, ahead-of-market updates, a focus on education, and a reliance on a meteorologist team with over 85 collective years of experience in the sector, the CWG subscription is an essential component to anyone managing weather-related risk. Visit our web site for information about our free trial service or contact our Sales Director Joe Flinn for any questions at 832-559-8153 or [email protected].

[11/13/19]   This is what coldest kick-off to November in 28 years looks like. Midwest takes brunt of it.

[11/13/19]   The first 12 days of November verified as coldest for Lower 48 of all 2000s, coldest since 1991, and 4th coldest of all-time. Top cold starts to November are mixed on following winter though with 4 warm and 5 cold among the others on top ten list.

[11/13/19]   Tomorrow's EIA report focuses on 2nd cold week in series of at least four. This week was 34% colder than prior week and 29% colder than equivalent week last year. Two key differences: Texas was not as cold as prior week, but national wind levels were much lower (less gen)

[11/06/19]   Bigger colder changes in recent days have shifted national U.S. demand estimates toward higher end of 2000s historical spectrum and momentum is advancing 2019 toward coldest November in almost 20 years.

[11/01/19]   -WPO continues to be biggest player on teleconnection board and still favors colder-sided middle November.

[11/01/19]   The October sunspot estimate of 0.4 is quietest so far in this new minimum and five-month running mean is now lowest seen in modern age. Big test ahead as we move into 2020.

[11/01/19]   Midday American GFS operational and ensemble models moved more aggressively colder for middle November. Upper level blocking patterns seem supportive of this risk, but other guidance still more cautious.

[10/30/19]   NOAA CFS weeklies failed to find this early November cold period, catching it only inside the two-week window after previously forecasting a very warm start. Here is the 11/8 EIA week:

[10/29/19]   In past 24 hours, majority of modeling moved more aggressively on series of cold outbreaks for U.S. Our latest demand estimate for November's first 12 days runs about 30 gas-weighted HDDs colder than 2018 and is coldest start to November of 2000s (and 4th all-time back to 1950).

[10/28/19]   This morning's forecasts came in colder than projected back on Friday (through 6-15 day), but we are watching some North Pacific pattern variability that could return some warmer weather by 16-20 day. Confidence is low and pending warmer variability could be transient too.

[10/28/19]   Current estimates for first 1/3 of November push 2019 colder than the strongest HDD start of November of the 2000s (206 HDDs vs. 191 in 2002); however, it still falls short of the top ten list for coldest starts.

[10/28/19]   Latest weekly NOAA CFS forecast data favor weak El Niño to neutral-positive phase through winter ahead. Latest weekly data point is +0.6C warmer than normal.

[10/24/19]   Powerful early season cold push sending potential record cold to Colorado next week. Texas could see lows into the 30s for Dallas and even Houston by week's end.

[10/22/19]   The coldest November on record for the U.S. (back to 1950) coincided with the election of Jimmy Carter in 1976. A strong western Canada high pressure ridge structure helped turn the U.S. blue.

[10/22/19]   The warmest November on record for the U.S. coincided with the meltdown of Enron in 2001. Strong Gulf of Alaska low pressure fueled the fire.

[10/22/19]   Stronger North Atlantic (Greenland) blocking buildup tries to cool down Europe by the 11-15 day, but challenges exist this early in season.

[10/22/19]   Impressive how similar October 2019 has been to 2018 with only an 8 HDD difference nationally with the latest estimate. This year's cold air supply is stronger into the West though.

[10/22/19]   Pattern analogs for strong Alaska ridge spike this weekend favor a stronger Central U.S. to Texas early season cold outbreak, but still some warmth on East Coast ahead of it.

[10/21/19]   After plenty of undulation, October 2019 is estimated to be running only 8 HDDs warmer than last year. Timing of a big cold front next week could shift answer + or - 10 HDDs.

[10/21/19]   Weekly NOAA tropical Pacific data pops to +0.8C for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the NINO 3.4 space. The subsurface is also re-warming:

[10/09/19]   Powerful Gulf of Alaska low activity being fueled by remnants of super-typhoon Hagibis and helping to warm the Eastern U.S in the 11-15 day. Models do not keep the Gulf low for very long though and the pattern looks to switch again by late period.

[10/09/19]   After being stalled for very long time, models are finally starting to move the Madden-Julian Oscillation forward toward phase 2 and potentially colder phase 3 by end of month.

[10/09/19]   Tomorrow's EIA report focuses on above normal demand period thanks to very warm to hot conditions in East and South with several locations hitting all-time hottest Oct readings. However, Oct 90s heat is not same as summer due to shorter-duration daylight and lower humidity.

[10/01/19]   Combination of Southern to Eastern heat and some incoming weekend cooling keeps national demand running above normal until Sunday, but then warm pattern view creates enough HDD deficits by next week and beyond for below normal demand into middle of October.

[10/01/19]   With low September sunspot reading of 1.1, running mean sinks down into 2008-2009 valley of prior deepest solar minimum of our lifetimes. This new one may outperform it and could trigger some interesting winters like cold U.S. 08-09, 09-10, and 10-11 examples.

[10/01/19]   September explodes U.S. cooling demand levels well above last year to set a new all-time high. The 257 population-weighted cooling degree day total was 20 hotter than June 2019 (Jul-Sep was hotter than Jun-Aug this year).

[09/24/19]   Impressive warm pattern for Midwest, East, and South keep late-season cooling demand going, but very strong cooling also invading parts of West in very amplified pattern. During shoulder season, near normal temperatures are typically most bearish for demand...very little here.

[09/24/19]   Total demand (measuring both late-season cooling demand and early-season heating demand) is forecast to run above normal into early October and could even outpace 2018 at times.

[09/20/19]   Shoulder season for energy is tricky, but at least for now, cooling demand continues outweighing national heating demand right into early days of October...we saw similar results last year too.

[09/20/19]   September's current 259 pop-weighted CDD estimate is tracking 19 CDDs over last year's warmest ever record...and September is coming in hotter than June.

[09/20/19]   Not only is September tracking to be hottest on record for the U.S., but it is also running hotter than June this year and a typical June (by almost 30 cooling degree days nationally).

[09/17/19]   Continued very warm pattern is propelling 2019 cooling demand estimates above 2018 record warm September levels. While not as effective as core summer heat, pattern is still delivering 90s to South, 80s and some 90s to East Coast, and 80s yet in Midwest.

[09/17/19]   Even though calendar is ticking into late September, national cooling demand is still outpacing incoming early season heating demand for North America. Cooling needs are estimated to be 2 to 4X higher than overnight heating even at very end of month.

[09/17/19]   Newly-named Tropical Depression 11 bringing heavy rains to Houston today through Thursday and maybe lingering into Friday as it slowly moves north to northwestward. Clouds/rains offer ERCOT demand destruction, but flooding in some areas could enhance impacts.

[08/27/19]   The shoulder season is a complicated time in energy world and different metrics tell different tales for the typical demand flip date from cooling to heating demand...anywhere from September 26 to October 6.

[08/27/19]   Our updated call on September yesterday still favors a warm to hot month nationally, but not nearly as hot as last year's record hot month.....closer to 2014 and 2013 levels instead.

[08/27/19]   Recent U.S. cooling at end of August shifts monthly demand estimates lower than 2018, but still in hotter than normal category nationally.

[08/27/19]   Tropical Storm Dorian struggles to combat being surrounded by dry/dusty air. Next up: the mountains of Hispaniola.

[08/27/19]   Strong late summer high-latitude blocking looks to position May-August as the strongest for that period on record - outpacing years like 1993 and late 1950s.

[08/23/19]   The first week of September is forecast to run cooler than the 10-year normal and quite a bit cooler than last year, significantly reducing the odds of repeating 2018's record hot September result for the Lower 48.

[08/23/19]   One more surge of heat favored for ERCOT early next week before a cool front invades the state late week into the holiday weekend.

[08/23/19]   Impressive summer high-latitude blocking- with the strongest negative AO/NAO combo on record- can be traced back to the final stratospheric warming in Spring 2019.

[08/20/19]   Storm formation around the Houston area is reducing ERCOT bal-day demand compared to yesterday. Texas wind generation is running lower than yesterday, but higher than forecast too.

[08/20/19]   Tropical wave in northwest Caribbean is not expected to develop, but it could deliver more showers/storms to northwestern Gulf coastal areas by late this week and weekend...still something to monitor.

[08/20/19]   Majority of global climate models favor neutral to edge of weak Niño for upcoming heating season. No major El Niño or La Niña is expected at this point.

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