Commodity Weather Group, LLC

Commodity Weather Group, LLC


Because the albedo/atmosphere reflect 30% of the incoming solar energy the earth is cooler with that albedo/atmosphere than without. Without an atmosphere the earth would receive 30% more kJ/h becoming a barren rock much like the moon, hot^3 on the lit side, cold^3 on the dark. This observation is easily confirmed by comparisons with the moon as Nikolov, Kramm suggest and UCLA Diviner mission observes. This refutes the RGHE theory which postulates just the opposite, that the earth sans atmosphere would be a -430 F ball of ice or 288 K w/ - 255 K w/o = 33 C cooler. (Rubbish!) Because of the non-radiative heat transfer processes of the contiguous participating atmospheric molecules, 396 W/m^2 of BB LWIR upwelling from the surface is not possible. As I demonstrate in the grand science tradition of performing experiments: Without the 396 W/m^2 upwelling LWIR there is no net 333 W/m^2 for the GHGs to "trap", "back" radiate or warm anything anywhere. There is no radiative greenhouse effect and the non-existent GHGs do not "warm" the terrestrial surface. Nick Schroeder, BSME CU ‘78

Commodity Weather Group, LLC

Commodity Weather Group, LLC (CWG) helps its clients manage and mitigate the weather’s important impacts on agricultural and energy commodities. With a combination of rapid, ahead-of-market updates, a focus on education, and a reliance on a meteorologist team with over 85 collective years of experience in the sector, the CWG subscription is an essential component to anyone managing weather-related risk. Visit our web site for information about our free trial service or contact our Sales Director Joe Flinn for any questions at 832-559-8153 or [email protected].

[06/03/20]   Cristobal expected to travel north through Gulf this weekend to reach Louisiana coast by Sunday night into early Monday as probably strong tropical storm or maybe weak category one.

[06/03/20]   As Cristobal lifts north through Louisiana and Arkansas early next week, heat should rotate into Texas with some modeling getting very hot; however, ensemble spread is large and models tend to have hot Texas bias in June.

[06/03/20]   While last week was hotter than normal nationally, it was still cooler than the equivalent EIA period last year, and Texas cooling degree days were closer to normal.

[06/01/20]   Weekend forecasts cooled slightly, but first half of June 2020 forecast to experience above 10 and 30-year normal population weighted cooling degree days for Lower 48. Summer heat starting for many areas.

[06/01/20]   Latest NOAA weekly data reports central Tropical Pacific NINO 3.4 region down to -0.5C cooler than normal...on edge of weak La Niña intensity. Cooler than normal equatorial waters expanding from near Dateline to South American coastline.

[06/01/20]   Remnants of Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda should start to reform in southern Bay of Campeche tonight and tomorrow to potentially become Atlantic storm Cristobal. It may target western Gulf this coming weekend perhaps as tropical storm or hurricane.

[06/01/20]   May concludes first April-May cool national pattern result in 17 years.

[05/28/20]   Very low confidence on potential tropical activity emanating from Yucatan area later next week toward next weekend. Could be fast-mover like Tropical Storm Colin in 2016, but with development one week away or longer, just no skill yet.

[05/28/20]   NOAA CFS month-ahead analog matches lean on 2016 a bit too.

[05/28/20]   No two years are ever exactly alike, but similarities to 2016 pattern continue to show up in forecast.

[05/27/20]   Broad upper level high pressure ridging gives meteorological summer a hotter start, especially for mid-continent. Above 10-year normal cooling degree days expected by Wed Jun 3.

[05/27/20]   CWG June outlook is held at 270 population-weighted cooling degree days, which would be 4th hottest of 2000s and about 14% hotter than 2019.

[05/27/20]   Narrow band of below normal sea surface temperatures extending from central Tropical Pacific to coast of South America marking attempted initiation of La Niña event.

[05/27/20]   Cooling eastern Pacific means lower wind shear in Atlantic basin and potentially very active Atlantic hurricane season this year. Daily satellite estimates show late May already sinking below normal ahead of CFS schedule.

[05/26/20]   Drier trends in 6-15 day for Deep South may finally allow it to start seeing some summer-level heat as calendar rolls deeper into June.

[05/26/20]   Models suggesting potential southern Gulf tropical development later next week - could be a Bertha storm- but models are still divergent on development and tracking details this far in future.

[05/26/20]   Central Tropical Pacific continues to cool toward La Niña, which would support hotter/drier U.S. summer eventually. Weekly NOAA data dropped to -0.41C and latest satellite estimate is -0.51C.

[05/18/20]   After cool-sided April and early May, pattern shifting toward seasonal to warm/hot for most of U.S. by late May. Texas is a cooler/wetter exception at times.

[05/18/20]   Significant current cooling in the Central Tropical Pacific is validating the CFS forecast for a shift toward La Niña. This supports hotter risks for the Lower 48 summer too.

[05/12/20]   Impressive subsurface cooling setting stage for potential La Niña emergence by early summer, but still unclear on timing of atmospheric response for typical hot U.S. impacts.

[05/12/20]   Surge of heat ridging into East late next week could deliver first 90+ day of season to Washington DC for quick spike of East PJM early season cooling demand (humidity not expected to be at summer levels though).

[05/12/20]   Big surge of Texas rain this weekend delays any sort of summer drought concerns for a while longer.

[05/07/20]   Unusually strong late-season residential heating demand spike focuses on 5/15 EIA week with our estimate of 106.4 total degree days (TDDs) ranking as highest of 2000s and 3rd highest all-time back to 1950 (for second week of May).

[05/06/20]   Strongest Eastern cooling happens over next five days with risks for record lows in spots. Moderation is slow next week with more variable, warmer weather returning mid-month...not sure for how long though given transitional season.

[05/06/20]   Impressive early May cooling propels month toward its coolest status (based on gas-weighted HDDs) in about twelve years. Lows in 30s and 40s for Midwest and East fuel late-season overnight residential heating demand.

[04/30/20]   Next two weeks sees sufficient high pressure ridging around both Alaska and Greenland along with Western U.S. support for cool-prevailing Eastern U.S. delivering late-season above normal overnight heating demand (lows mainly in 40s).

[04/30/20]   NOAA CFS model average over past five days favors cool East and warm West narrative for May with mixed precipitation inclinations (wet Texas lean).

[04/30/20]   Watching a burst of heat in Texas on Monday with middle 90s Dallas and upper 90s San Antonio. Wind generation looks mostly robust, but could see an intra-day dip to monitor.

[04/28/20]   May HDD forecast of 168 would be cooler than 30-year and 10-year normal as well as last year with main impacts being late-season overnight residential heating demand for Midwest and East Coast cities.

[04/28/20]   NOAA data for upper ocean show cooling trend continuation for potential attempt to shift to La Niña this summer

[04/28/20]   Very wet pattern in East and South over next two weeks is consistent with above normal global wind (GLAAM) forecasts and indicative of Niño atmospheric response base state.

[04/28/20]   Historical very positive global wind (+GLAAM) cases for middle 3rd of May continue quite cool pattern for Lower 48, but key is continued +PNA West Coast ridging.

[04/22/20]   4/17 EIA week was coolest of April 2020 with strongest anomalies from normal in Midwest. National heating degree day levels were similar to 3/13 EIA period last month.

[04/20/20]   NOAA CFS model continues cool-sided lean for Midwest to East into early to middle May with active/wet pattern and slightly slower than normal spring evolution.

[04/20/20]   April gas-weighted heating degree days tracking as third highest of 2000s thanks to lingering cooling for Midwest to Northeast.

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